Retail sales fell again in the year
to May, following a brief pause in April, the CBI said.
This month’s decline in sales was in line with retailers’ expectations
and, other than in April, was the least negative result in nearly a year.
At the same time, retailers’ sentiment about general business prospects
was the least negative for over a year.
In the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, 31% of retailers said
year-on-year sales volumes were up in the first half of May, while 48% said
they were down.
The resulting balance of -17% was close to retailers’ expectations (-15%)
and, other than last month’s broadly flat figure of +3%, was the least
negative figure since June 2008 (-9%). A similar decline in sales is
expected in June (-20%).
Among the retail sectors, two reported positive sales growth in May -
grocers and footwear & leather – although sales grew for both at a
slower pace than in April. The hardware, china & DIY sector saw flat sales
growth in May, while sales of big ticket household items, such as durable
goods and furniture & carpets, continued to fall.
Andy Clarke, Chairman of the CBI Distributive Trades Panel, and Chief
Operating Officer of Asda, said:
“Conditions were tough again in May for retailers, proving April’s better
sales figure was a temporary blip. Trading conditions are expected to remain
difficult in June.
“As for much of this year, supermarkets and shoe shops were the ones
seeing decent growth. Sectors more dependent on people’s house moves, such
as furniture and carpets and durable household goods continued to see
falling sales.
“The harsh reality is consumers need good reason to part with their
hard-earned cash. Demonstrating you offer value for money as a retailer has
never been more important, and marks out the true survivors.”
Sales for the time of year were reported to be poor by a net 36% of
retailers, though they have slightly less negative expectations for June
(-20%). The three-month moving average of sales volumes, which smooths out
monthly peaks and troughs, remained weak (a balance of -19%) but was the
least negative figure for nearly a year (-16% in June 2008).
A balance of 24% reported a year-on-year fall in orders placed upon
suppliers and, other than in April (-11%), this is the least negative since
June 2008. The balance of +8% of firms saying stocks were more than adequate
to meet demand is the lowest since June 2007 (+6%).
Retailers reported that prices rose in the year to May at the slowest
rate for nearly three years, with this quarter’s balance (+12%) the lowest
since August 2006 (+12%). A similar rate of price inflation is expected in
August (+15%).
When asked about the general business situation facing retail, the
balance of firms expecting it to deteriorate (-8%) was the least negative
since November 2007 (a balance of -1%).
Ian McCafferty, the CBI’s Chief Economic Adviser, said: “Businesses of
all types are looking to reduce stock levels during the recession, to adjust
to lower demand and to improve cashflow. Retailers’ efforts appear to be
having an impact, with stock levels lower relative to expected demand, which
should help improve conditions along the supply chain.
“Retailers are less pessimistic about their general business situation,
and the decline in demand now appears to be slowing compared with the turn
of the year. However, with unemployment still rising, conditions will remain
tough.”